Sunday, July 10, 2016

GROWTH WATCH #2

OMNI
GROWTH WATCH, NOTES ON GROWTH
July 10, 2016
Compiled by Dick Bennett for a Culture of Peace, Justice, and ECOLOGY
(#1, June 17, 2016)

What’s at Stake:  A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).
  • During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.
  • In 1970, there were roughly half as many people in the world as there are now.


Contents of Growth Notes #2
Continuation of Mainstream Media/NWAD-G Mirror and Cheer-Leader of Private Property, Economic and Population Growth, Expansion, Development, Consumption, PROGRESS.  This newsletter can be terribly misleading if readers forget the many inseparable contexts, such as C02 increase, the industrial food system, resources depletion, poverty, hunger, wars, refugees.  See OMNI’s newsletters on these and related topics.

Northwest Arkansas-Democrat:  NWAD-G CHEERS AND DRUMS FOR
      GROWTH June and July 2016. 
Graphic of Recent Growth Progress
World Population from Year 200 to Present and into Future
Idea of Progress Through Tech
Robert Kennedy’s Speech on GNP and Growth
John Perkins, How the US Uses Globalization

ARTICLES IN the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette  ON ONE DAY—JUNE 23, 2016--DESCRIBING AND REAFFIRMING PRIVATE PROPERTY, GROWTH, AND CONSUMPTION USA (Sweet Jesus Oxygen of Capitalism!).
AD-G June 23, 2016

Fayetteville's tourism commission to interview director applicants

FAYETTEVILLE -- The city's tourism commission narrowed its search for an executive director to three candidates.
The Advertising and Promotion Commission on Tuesday plans to interview Matt Behrend, Molly Rawn and Angie Albright for the job. The position oversees the commission's $5 million budget and its work to market Fayetteville and its attractions and bring in more tourism, which includes running the city's visitor's bureau, Town Center and Clinton House Museum…

Group lauds Fort Chaffee development effort

Posted: June 23, 2016 at 1:04 a.m.
·          
WASHINGTON -- Nearly two decades after the federal government closed Fort Chaffee, efforts to develop the former base are attracting national recognition.
Association of Defense Communities officials gave the Fort Chaffee Redevelopment Authority its base redevelopment excellence award Tuesday, citing effort to develop 7,000 acres near Fort Smith…
Glenwood sawmill to reopen; investors’ $50M effort to create 136 jobs By Chris Bahn
1
Caddo River Forest Products will invest $50 million to reopen a Glenwood sawmill, a move expected to create 136 jobs in the Pike County town.
Owners of the company will receive a mix of state and federal incentives totaling $2.3 million to assist with reopening the former Curt Bean Lumber mill, which was last operational in 2010. The money will assist Caddo River Forest Products, an entity formed by Texas investors who own timberland in southwest Arkansas….

Lawmaker raps Yellen for slow growth

0
WASHINGTON -- A House Republican on Wednesday complained that the Federal Reserve's actions on interest rates have not fueled economic growth and have left financial markets confused about the Fed's next moves.
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, said that the Fed and the Obama administration have failed to produce the kind of economic policies needed to fuel the economy in the years after the 2007-2009 recession.
"What is clear and verifiable is that this weak economy doesn't work for millions of working Americans," Hensarling told Yellen. "The Fed has been the facilitator and accommodator of the administration's disastrous national debt policy and has regrettably lent its shrinking credibility to advancing the administration's social agenda."…
INDEPENDENCE DAY GOOD DAY TO PLAN GROWTH
Hicham Raache.  “Bypass Spurs Preparation for Growth.  Springdale Developing Infrastructure on West Side.”  NWA Democrat-Gazette (NWAD-G), July 4, 2016. 1B.   “Extensive sewer development happening in the city’s west end is laying the groundwork toward the future, city officials said.”

Three Articles in “Business and Farm,” NAD-G (7-2-16).
Claire Williams.  “State Farms’ Broiler-Chick Tally Up 3%.”  Despite the bird flu epidemic in 2015, hatcheries and meat processing are booming in Arkansas.
Polina Noskova (Bloomberg News).  “Chrysler, GM Short for June, But Ford, Nissan Top Sales Forecasts.”   “Forecasts,” predictions the point.  Car sales not down, but sales for Chrysler and GM were lower than predicted.
Josh Boak (AP).  “U.S. Manufacturing Gauge Rises in June, Report Says.”  “American manufacturing expanded for the fourth-consecutive month in June…as the outlook for new orders and production improved.”
Rakteem Katakey.  “Big Oil Projects Indicate Rally in Spending.”  AD-G (7-10-16).  “Two projects worth $45 billion…show the world’s largest oil companies…make big investments, emboldened by rising crude prices and low costs that promise to trigger expansion.”
“Leak Shuts Chevron’s Australian Plant.” 
Only a momentary hitch for a $54 billion liquefied natural gas development, “inconsequential for a project” estimated to “generate cash flows of nearly $7 billion a year for the partners [Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell] over many decades.”
See Overpop doc for more growth articles from ADG

Every thorough examination of an issue should arise from these two basic questions:
What is the situation?  Describe the case.
What is omitted?  Describe everything inconveniently contradictory suppressed.
Everything in the AD-G, amplifies the dominant culture—virtually a religion--of private property, growth, and consumerism. Catastrophic population growth, resources exhaustion, wars, and all other liabilities of US capitalism are absent or muted.

GRAPHIC UP FOR PROGRESS THROUGH GROWTH from 1980 to Present

growth
population, refugees, consumption (North). . .

Growth 1982


Growth  1990


Growth 1998


Growth 2012

Growth 2016 (June 2016)

Population June 2016: 7.4 billion
Consumption (USA):  The U.S. Consumer.
The United States, with less than 5 % of the global population, uses about a quarter of the world's fossil fuel resources—burning up nearly 25 % of the coal, 26 % of the oil, and 27 % of the world's natural gas.
www.worldwatch.org/node/810

UNITED NATIONS WORLD POPULATION DAY JULY11
Populations alone seem overwhelming.   Add to them populations in crisis:
REFUGEES
UNHCR - Figures at a Glance United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
www.unhcr.org/.../figur...
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
Among them are nearly 21.3 million refugees, over half of whom are under the age of 18. ... In a world where nearly 34,000 people are forcibly displaced every day as a result of conflict or persecution, our work at ... UNHCR 2001-2016.
data.unhcr.org/.../region...
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
... world's dead/missing in 2016 74% 2,896 arrivals by sea in 2015 1,015,078 arrivals by sea in 2016 237,044 Increasing numbers of refugees and migrants take ...
www.unhcr.org/.../unhc...
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
Search; Global (EN); Menu. Select a language for our global site. English Français ... Stories · Governments and Partners · Get Involved. © UNHCR 2001-2016.
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED POPULATIONS
Two United Nations agencies, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), are responsible for safeguarding the rights and well-being of the world’s refugees. Currently, the UNHCR's major operations take place in Afghanistan, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Pakistan, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq.

In a statement regarding the UNHCR's mid-year 2015 report, António Guterres, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, said “Never has there been a greater need for tolerance, compassion and solidarity with people who have lost everything.” It's predicted that forced displacements in 2015 exceeded all previous records, topping 60 million people. This means that one out of every 122 persons in the world were forced to flee their home.

Other findings in the report, based on mid-year trends, included:
  • If you become a refugee today your chances of returning home are the lowest in more than 30 years
  • Syria’s war remains the single biggest generator of both refugees and internal displaced persons
  • On an absolute basis Turkey is the world’s biggest host country -  1.84 million refugees as of 30 June 
  • Lebanon hosts the most refugees per capita – 209 refugees per 1,000
  • Ethiopia pays most in relation to its economy - 469 refugees for every dollar of GDP.
  • Within the first six months, Germany was the world's biggest recipient of new asylum claims, followed by Russia, with 159,000 and 100,000 claims respectively
  • Overall, countries hosting the lion’s share of refugees are those immediately bordering conflict zones, usually forming part of the developing world

Growth 2024
Projected Population:  8 billion

GROWTH 2056
Projected Population:  10 billion

Yearly Population Growth Rate (%)
Population in the world is currently (2016) growing at a rate of around 1.13% per year. The current average population change is estimated at around
80 million per year. Annual growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it was at 2% and above.

The world population (the total number of living humans on Earth) was 7.4 billion as of June 2016 according to Worldometers and based on the latest estimates provided by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division [1]. World population is projected to reach 8 billion in 2024 and 10 billion in the year 2056.
World Population: Past, Present, and Future
(move and expand the bar at the bottom of the chart to navigate through time)
World Population   
Datetime
World Population
Jul 1, 200
190,000,000
Jul 1, 600
200,000,000
Jul 1, 700
210,000,000
Jul 1, 800
220,000,000
Jul 1, 900
240,000,000
Jul 1, 1000
275,000,000
Jul 1, 1100
320,000,000
Jul 1, 1200
360,000,000
Jul 1, 1400
350,000,000
Jul 1, 1500
450,000,000
Jul 1, 1650
500,000,000
Jul 1, 1700
610,000,000
Jul 1, 1760
770,000,000
Aug 1, 1804
1,000,000,000
Jul 1, 1850
1,200,000,000
Jul 1, 1900
1,600,000,000
Jul 1, 1927
2,000,000,000
Jul 1, 1950
2,525,149,312
Jul 1, 1951
2,571,867,515
Jul 1, 1952
2,617,940,399
Jul 1, 1953
2,664,029,010
Jul 1, 1954
2,710,677,773
Jul 1, 1955
2,758,314,525
Jul 1, 1956
2,807,246,148
Jul 1, 1957
2,857,662,910
Jul 1, 1958
2,909,651,396
Jul 1, 1959
2,963,216,053
Jul 1, 1960
3,018,343,828
Jul 1, 1961
3,075,073,173
Jul 1, 1962
3,133,554,362
Jul 1, 1963
3,194,075,347
Jul 1, 1964
3,256,988,501
Jul 1, 1965
3,322,495,121
Jul 1, 1966
3,390,685,523
Jul 1, 1967
3,461,343,172
Jul 1, 1968
3,533,966,901
Jul 1, 1969
3,607,865,513
Jul 1, 1970
3,682,487,691
Jul 1, 1971
3,757,734,668
Jul 1, 1972
3,833,594,894
Jul 1, 1973
3,909,722,120
Jul 20, 1974
4,000,000,000
Jul 1, 1975
4,061,399,228
Jul 1, 1976
4,136,542,070
Jul 1, 1977
4,211,322,427
Jul 1, 1978
4,286,282,447
Jul 1, 1979
4,362,189,531
Jul 1, 1980
4,439,632,465
Jul 1, 1981
4,518,602,042
Jul 1, 1982
4,599,003,374
Jul 1, 1983
4,681,210,508
Jul 1, 1984
4,765,657,562
Jul 1, 1985
4,852,540,569
Jul 1, 1986
4,942,056,118
Jul 11, 1987
5,000,000,000
Jul 1, 1988
5,126,632,694
Jul 1, 1989
5,218,978,019
Jul 1, 1990
5,309,667,699
Jul 1, 1991
5,398,328,753
Jul 1, 1992
5,485,115,276
Jul 1, 1993
5,570,045,380
Jul 1, 1994
5,653,315,893
Jul 1, 1995
5,735,123,084
Jul 1, 1996
5,815,392,305
Jul 1, 1997
5,894,155,105
Jul 1, 1998
5,971,882,825
Oct 12, 1999
6,000,000,000
Jul 1, 2000
6,126,622,121
Jul 1, 2001
6,204,310,739
Jul 1, 2002
6,282,301,767
Jul 1, 2003
6,360,764,684
Jul 1, 2004
6,439,842,408
Jul 1, 2005
6,519,635,850
Jul 1, 2006
6,600,220,247
Jul 1, 2007
6,681,607,320
Jul 1, 2008
6,763,732,879
Jul 1, 2009
6,846,479,521
Jul 1, 2010
6,929,725,043
Oct 31, 2011
7,000,000,000
Jul 1, 2012
7,097,500,453
Jul 1, 2013
7,181,715,139
Jul 1, 2013
7,181,715,139
Jul 1, 2014
7,265,785,946
Jul 1, 2014
7,265,785,946
Jul 1, 2015
7,349,472,099
Jul 1, 2015
7,349,472,099
Jul 1, 2016
7,432,663,275
Jul 1, 2016
7,432,663,275
Jul 1, 2017
7,515,284,153
Jul 1, 2018
7,597,175,534
Jul 1, 2019
7,678,174,656
Jul 1, 2020
7,758,156,792
Jul 1, 2025
8,141,661,007
Jul 1, 2030
8,500,766,052
Jul 1, 2035
8,838,907,877
Jul 1, 2040
9,157,233,976
Jul 1, 2045
9,453,891,780
Jul 1, 2050
9,725,147,994
Jul 1, 2060
10,184,289,992
Jul 1, 2070
10,547,989,001
Jul 1, 2080
10,836,635,071
Jul 1, 2090
11,055,270,118
Jul 1, 2100
11,213,317,482
400400600600800800100010001200120014001400160016001800180020002000
Datetime
World Population
Jul 1, 200
190,000,000
Jul 1, 600
200,000,000
Jul 1, 700
210,000,000
Jul 1, 800
220,000,000
Jul 1, 900
240,000,000
Jul 1, 1000
275,000,000
Jul 1, 1100
320,000,000
Jul 1, 1200
360,000,000
Jul 1, 1400
350,000,000
Jul 1, 1500
450,000,000
Jul 1, 1650
500,000,000
Jul 1, 1700
610,000,000
Jul 1, 1760
770,000,000
Aug 1, 1804
1,000,000,000
Jul 1, 1850
1,200,000,000
Jul 1, 1900
1,600,000,000
Jul 1, 1927
2,000,000,000
Jul 1, 1950
2,525,149,312
Jul 1, 1951
2,571,867,515
Jul 1, 1952
2,617,940,399
Jul 1, 1953
2,664,029,010
Jul 1, 1954
2,710,677,773
Jul 1, 1955
2,758,314,525
Jul 1, 1956
2,807,246,148
Jul 1, 1957
2,857,662,910
Jul 1, 1958
2,909,651,396
Jul 1, 1959
2,963,216,053
Jul 1, 1960
3,018,343,828
Jul 1, 1961
3,075,073,173
Jul 1, 1962
3,133,554,362
Jul 1, 1963
3,194,075,347
Jul 1, 1964
3,256,988,501
Jul 1, 1965
3,322,495,121
Jul 1, 1966
3,390,685,523
Jul 1, 1967
3,461,343,172
Jul 1, 1968
3,533,966,901
Jul 1, 1969
3,607,865,513
Jul 1, 1970
3,682,487,691
Jul 1, 1971
3,757,734,668
Jul 1, 1972
3,833,594,894
Jul 1, 1973
3,909,722,120
Jul 20, 1974
4,000,000,000
Jul 1, 1975
4,061,399,228
Jul 1, 1976
4,136,542,070
Jul 1, 1977
4,211,322,427
Jul 1, 1978
4,286,282,447
Jul 1, 1979
4,362,189,531
Jul 1, 1980
4,439,632,465
Jul 1, 1981
4,518,602,042
Jul 1, 1982
4,599,003,374
Jul 1, 1983
4,681,210,508
Jul 1, 1984
4,765,657,562
Jul 1, 1985
4,852,540,569
Jul 1, 1986
4,942,056,118
Jul 11, 1987
5,000,000,000
Jul 1, 1988
5,126,632,694
Jul 1, 1989
5,218,978,019
Jul 1, 1990
5,309,667,699
Jul 1, 1991
5,398,328,753
Jul 1, 1992
5,485,115,276
Jul 1, 1993
5,570,045,380
Jul 1, 1994
5,653,315,893
Jul 1, 1995
5,735,123,084
Jul 1, 1996
5,815,392,305
Jul 1, 1997
5,894,155,105
Jul 1, 1998
5,971,882,825
Oct 12, 1999
6,000,000,000
Jul 1, 2000
6,126,622,121
Jul 1, 2001
6,204,310,739
Jul 1, 2002
6,282,301,767
Jul 1, 2003
6,360,764,684
Jul 1, 2004
6,439,842,408
Jul 1, 2005
6,519,635,850
Jul 1, 2006
6,600,220,247
Jul 1, 2007
6,681,607,320
Jul 1, 2008
6,763,732,879
Jul 1, 2009
6,846,479,521
Jul 1, 2010
6,929,725,043
Oct 31, 2011
7,000,000,000
Jul 1, 2012
7,097,500,453
Jul 1, 2013
7,181,715,139
Jul 1, 2013
7,181,715,139
Jul 1, 2014
7,265,785,946
Jul 1, 2014
7,265,785,946
Jul 1, 2015
7,349,472,099
Jul 1, 2015
7,349,472,099
Jul 1, 2016
7,432,663,275
Jul 1, 2016
7,432,663,275
Jul 1, 2017
7,515,284,153
Jul 1, 2018
7,597,175,534
Jul 1, 2019
7,678,174,656
Jul 1, 2020
7,758,156,792
Jul 1, 2025
8,141,661,007
Jul 1, 2030
8,500,766,052
Jul 1, 2035
8,838,907,877
Jul 1, 2040
9,157,233,976
Jul 1, 2045
9,453,891,780
Jul 1, 2050
9,725,147,994
Jul 1, 2060
10,184,289,992
Jul 1, 2070
10,547,989,001
Jul 1, 2080
10,836,635,071
Jul 1, 2090
11,055,270,118
Jul 1, 2100
11,213,317,482
The chart above illustrates how world population has changed throughout history. View the full tabulated data.
At the dawn of agriculture, about 8000 B.C., the population of the world was approximately 5 million. Over the 8,000-year period up to 1 A.D. it grew to 200 million (some estimate 300 million or even 600, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be), with a growth rate of under 0.05% per year.
A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).
  • During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.
  • In 1970, there were roughly half as many people in the world as there are now.
  • Because of declining growth rates, it will now take over 200 years to double again.
Wonder how big was the world's population when you were born?
Check out this simple wizard or this more elaborated one to find out.

Sources:



     My interest in the history of the idea of progress and of the belief in the benevolence of economic and technological development was recently whetted by one of Dr. Robert McAfee’s 1972 graduate school textbooks. 
Careless Technology, edited by M. Taghi Farvar and John P. Milton (1972)
From Book Jacket: “The Careless Technology explores the relationships between technological developments in the Third World nations and the ecological strains that “progress” creates.  It challenges the idea that developing countries can or should be overhauled by the wealthier nations….As Barry Commoner states in his summary of the volume: “While nearly all of the projects described were conceived as specific technological advances--the construction of hydro-electric plant, the development of an irrigation system, enhancement of crop yields by chemical control of pests--they were in operational fact powerful intrusions on large scale geophysical and ecological systems…ecological mistakes.”
Under the banner of growth, development continues headlong today still without the restraints urgently essential to a sustainable civilization.   The jacket of The Careless Technology presents three pictures: the first at the top is of a cow grazing at left and the moon rising at right; the second picture has the cow half-visible and moon emerging as a skull; in the third picture the cow has disappeared and the moon is full-skull.   --Dick

Comments by  Robert Kennedy, Jr. and John Perkins regarding US development/growth behavior.

Excerpt from Robert Kennedy’s Speech on GNP and Growth

Remarks at the University of Kansas, March 18, 1968

http://www.jfklibrary.org/Research/Research-Aids/Ready-Reference/RFK-Speeches/Remarks-of-Robert-F-Kennedy-at-the-University-of-Kansas-March-18-1968.aspx
“And this is one of the great tasks of leadership for us, as individuals and citizens this year. Even if we act to erase material poverty, there is another greater task, it is to confront the poverty of satisfaction - purpose and dignity - that afflicts us all. 
Too much and for too long, we seemed to have surrendered personal excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things.  Our Gross National Product, now, is over $800 billion dollars a year, but that Gross National Product - if we judge the United States of America by that - that Gross National Product counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. 
It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them.  It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. 
It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities.  It counts Whitman's rifle and Speck's knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children. 
Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play.  It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. 
It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. 
And it can tell us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.”

John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man: How the U.S. Uses Globalization to Cheat Poor Countries Out of Trillions

Interview excerpt: “..the company I worked for was a company named Chas. T. Main in Boston, Massachusetts. We were about 2,000 employees, and I became its chief economist. I ended up having fifty people working for me. But my real job was deal-making. It was giving loans to other countries, huge loans, much bigger than they could possibly repay. One of the conditions of the loan — let’s say a $1 billion to a country like Indonesia or Ecuador — and this country would then have to give ninety percent of that loan back to a U.S. company, or U.S. companies, to build the infrastructure — a Halliburton or a Bechtel. These were big ones. Those companies would then go in and build an electrical system or ports or highways, and these would basically serve just a few of the very wealthiest families in those countries. The poor people in those countries would be stuck ultimately with this amazing debt that they couldn’t possibly repay. A country today like Ecuador owes over fifty percent of its national budget just to pay down its debt. And it really can’t do it. So, we literally have them over a barrel. So, when we want more oil, we go to Ecuador and say, "Look, you’re not able to repay your debts, therefore give our oil companies your Amazon rain forest, which are filled with oil." And today we’re going in and destroying Amazonian rain forests, forcing Ecuador to give them to us because they’ve accumulated all this debt. So we make this big loan, most of it comes back to the United States, the country is left with the debt plus lots of interest, and they basically become our servants, our slaves. It’s an empire. There’s no two ways about it. It’s a huge empire. It’s been extremely successful.”
And here is my interactive grow game.  What growth do you love?  What about love?  Sorry, that’s already Subaru’s and their customers’. That’s what a Subaru is.  --Dick




Following matter goes at end
For more on growth, an aspect of Capitalism, see the many OMNI newsletters on US Capitalism and related topics (Overpopulation, Occupy, Chamber of Commerce).
Omni Newsletters:

Contents Growth Watch June 17, 2016
OMNI’s Book Forum June 5, 2016, Klein’s This Changes Everything, Film
What is OMNI350 Book Forum’s Purpose?  Is this the best book for our future?
Boostering Growth Has No Boundaries
US Chamber of Commerce
Water District (population growing)
Census: Fayetteville and NWA Best in State
To AD-G Easter Sunday Good Day to Drum Up Sales!
    XNA, Whataburger, Cargill, Wall-Mart, U of
    Arkansas! JB Hunt, Editorial
Progress
Ford’s New F-Series Trucks
Global
Tourism: Disney
Air Travel: Delta

Opposition to Growth
Monbiot, Air Travel
Chamber of Commerce
WLF v. Airplanes
Cities
US Forest Service
National Park Service

Scholarly Books
Limits to Growth
McKibben, Eaarth
Heinberg, The End of Growth
Rogoff, Rethinking the Growth Imperative
Derber and Magrass, Bully Nation: How the American
      Establishment Creates a Bullying Society



END OMNI NOTES ON GROWTH #2

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