Global Military Data

6 The Military Balance

2011, Editor's Foreward

October 2010, Rasmussen refused to rule out cyber attacks

as an Article V issue (where an armed attack against one

or more members in Europe or North America ‘shall be

considered an attack against them all’). Instead, he argued,

each situation had to be assessed by Allies on a case-by-case

basis. But mention of such issues, together with the need to

balance the divergent perspectives of NATO member states,

opened the Strategic Concept up to the criticism that – like

the QDR – it was unfocused and vague.

As militaries address an ever-expanding range of potential

tasks, it is perhaps to be expected that they face criticism

for losing focus on previously core roles. If armed forces are

unsure of the range of potential contingencies they will face

in future, the same is true of the policymakers who oversee

them. There remains a tendency to try to direct forces, even if

these are reducing in size, to carry out an increasingly wide

range of tasks. But it is likely that, for some nations, current

force reductions and financial considerations will eventually

necessitate hard decisions about levels of ambition and stra

priorities. Thus, the currently diffuse defence debate

in many countries, while perhaps reflecting contemporary

strategic complexity, merely postpones the need for such

decisions. Many militaries are being asked to do more with

less money, and with less focused strategic guidance.

tegic

Developments in

The Military Balance

The complexity of global defence debates has over the years

been reflected in the content of

the first edition in 1959, an 11-page pamphlet entitled

Soviet Union and the NATO Powers: The Military Balance

The Military Balance. FromThe,

the book has increasingly enumerated military inventories

around the world. It has also displayed a growing appre

of military developments outside Europe and North

ciation

America as significant in their own right and not simply in

relation to the Western defence debate. The way the data has

been presented has also changed, and this edition heralds a

period of further change to both the way the IISS presents its

defence data, and the range of data presented.

The newly constituted Defence and Military Analysis

Programme at the IISS has implemented several changes

to this year’s

book has always been the ability it gives its users to generate

comparisons between the military capabilities and defence

economics of different nations. This remains a central objective

in the Institute’s presentation of data within the book.

Military Balance. One of the key benefits of the

The Military Balance

has long contained a reference segment

at the back of the book, where presentation of comparative

information on military deployments and manpower, and

defence economics, for example, has resided.

To this we have now added a new segment at the start of

the book. These tabular and graphical features seek to highlight

key defence issues that are pertinent in light of current

defence issues, as well as particularly relevant thematic

issues, inventory developments or comparisons between

nations, and defence economic developments, that may not

have been analysed, presented or extrapolated in similar

formats elsewhere. This year’s essays comprise detailed analyses

of the war in Afghanistan, developments in unmanned

aerial vehicles, and the military dimension of cyberspace.

In terms of regional data coverage, the section on Europe

now combines NATO and non-NATO Europe, while Asia

combines the previous South and Central Asia and East Asia

and Australasia sections, in order to better reflect the military

and economic ties across these continents.

Meanwhile, there has been a change in understanding

of the factors constituting military capability.

Balance

and equipment inventories. However, quantitative indica

are of limited utility as indicators of military capability,

The Militaryhas traditionally focused on key combat capabilitiestors

and we are consequently including more qualitative judgements.

The Military Balance

to equipment holdings such as ‘serviceability in doubt’,

has historically applied caveats

‘combat capable’ and ‘in store’. This year we have adopted

and added a new defintion for equipment judged obsolescent,

namely equipment whose basic design is 40 or more

years old and which has not been significantly upgraded

(factors which may limit its usefulness in conflict). So far this

definition has only been applied to guided weapons, but it is

intended to extend its usage, where relevant, across all military

branches in the future.

The 2011 edition also sees some equipment change category

in the air and naval inventories. In the air fleets, UAVs

are now broken down by weight, and transport fleets by

role, allowing the reader to determine more easily the particular

capabilities available to nations using such equipment.

For naval forces, a classification system has been developed

based on full-load displacement rather than role. This will

allow for easier and more useful international comparisons

of navies according to the tonnage of vessels. (More detailed

information can be found in the Explanatory Notes beginning

on p. 483.) For

The Military Balance 2012, the IISS will

engage in a thorough reassessment of the presentation of

ground forces information.

Looking towards the structure of future editions of

The Military Balance

these qualitative judgements as well as graphical and

, it is planned to develop and expand

tabular features, and to include further innovative means

of assessing and displaying defence data. We will of course

retain the core inventory assessments that have proven of

such value to defence analysts and policymakers since the

first

for expanding the range of inventory information presented.

Military Balance appeared. Indeed, there are arguments

The equipment categories traditionally counted remain

of critical importance in assessing defence capability, but

consideration is being given to adding other categories of

information such as selected logistic assets. How effective

are armies, for instance, if they cannot effectively deploy

and sustain their personnel or equipment, or force entry,

overcoming opposition forces, difficult terrain and logistical

problems?

However, adding further content may mean that the

place of existing information has to be questioned. Feedback

from readers has always been welcomed. Please address

such communications to the editor, at dmap@iiss.org.