America and Russia are vastly over-armed Nuclear weapons should be banished

 America and Russia are vastly over-armed

Nuclear weapons should be banished

Art Hobson

NWADG 26 August 2025

 

             August 6 and 9 marked the 80^th anniversary of the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  It’s an opportune time to ponder the global nuclear weapons threat.  As a physicist, I’m acutely aware of this, and of the role my profession played in creating these weapons.  

            I’ve devoted part of my life to eliminating this threat.  This included nuclear weapons discussions in my general physics courses and in all five editions of my published textbook, a six-month sabbatical at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, publishing (with eight colleagues) an arms control study titled “The future of land-based strategic missiles,” and several professional research articles about nuclear weapons issues. 

            The threat of nuclear war is a leading existential threat to civilization, as is “conventional” warfare such as we see today in a staggering list of 61 conflicts across 36 nations (according to the Peace Research Institute of Oslo).  As attested by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ doomsday clock which stands at 89 seconds before midnight, such a war is more plausible today than ever.  

            Please read “Nuclear War:  A Scenario” by Annie Jacobsen.  It’s a fascinating page-turner.   A significant list of expert advisers ensured technical backup.   The book is a minute-by-minute report of what happens after two intercontinental ballistic missiles are launched (for unknown reasons) from North Korea.  The book portrays a typical war game scenario of the type used in Defense Department exercises.  Nearly all such “games” lead to civilization’s destruction within a few hours. 

            Americans are partly responsible for this threat.  We could and should lead the world toward eliminating nuclear weapons.  Such experts as former Secretaires of State Henry Kissinger and George Schultz, seasoned diplomats and conservative Republicans, have recommended banning all nuclear weapons.

            In 2017, the United Nations overwhelmingly passed the “Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.”  It’s been signed by 93 nations, but nearly 100 nations have not yet signed including the 9 nuclear weapons states and the 32 NATO members.  America should lead the world toward signing this treaty, but, sadly, we haven’t signed.  Yet, as Kissinger and Shultz have pointed out, U.S. security would be enhanced by international nuclear disarmament.  

            The U.S. and Russia are vastly over-armed.  Both have “triads” of nuclear weapons.  Thus the U.S. has submarine-launched Trident ICBMs, land-based Minuteman ICBMs, and an aircraft fleet carrying nuclear gravity bombs.   

            Under a smart nuclear strategy, we would negotiate the removal of all land-based ICBMs.  Even if we unilaterally ditch these weapons, we will be more secure without them.  Here’s why:  

             Other nuclear powers know precisely where all our underground “missile silos” are located.  These weapons are vulnerable to an attack by Russia’s (and probably China’s) highly accurate land-based ICBMs.  This makes our land-based missiles sitting ducks that could, in the next tense situation, lure Russia into launching a surprise attack that would destroy these missiles and thus reduce damage to themselves in the coming war.  Similarly, Russia worries about a U.S. attack on Russian land-based missiles that would “pre-empt” a Russian first strike.  

            The most powerful and most secure leg of the U.S. triad is our 14 Trident missile submarines.  Each boat can carry 20 ICBMs, each carrying up to 8 independently targetable 475 kiloton bombs.  Each bomb is 31 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.  

            One submarine can carry 160 such bombs with a total explosive power of 76,000 tons of TNT equivalent.  For comparison, the TNT equivalent exploded by all sides in WW2, including Hiroshima and Nagasaki, was 3,000 tons.  Several Trident submarines are always underwater and totally invulnerable because no alien power knows where they are.  

            The U.S. triad’s third branch is the bomber aircraft.  These can be airborne within minutes and can remain aloft indefinitely via air refueling.  Once airborne, they are essentially invulnerable.  

            The submarine force is, by itself, sufficient to ensure that other nations will not attack us with nuclear weapons because our retaliation would be swift and sure.  

             China is catching up with the two superpowers.  They currently have only rudimentary air- and submarine-based nuclear weapons, but they already have a credible land-based force.   This is a new and dangerous nuclear weapons development. 

            An obvious conclusion is that the USA should lead the way toward elimination of all land-based strategic nuclear weapons.  Without them, America and the world would be far safer.  In fact, America would be safer if it gave up its land-based missile unilaterally, because this would eliminate the lure of a disarming first strike by other nations.   

 

• Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists clock:  https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/

• Report from the Peace Research Institute of Oslo https://www.prio.org/news/3616.  

• A web search can verify all the military details for USA and Russia.  Info on the Chinese triad of nuclear weapons can be found at https://fas.org/publication/nuclear-notebook-china-2025/.