CLIMATE MEMO MONDAYS, #90, AUGUST 29, 2022
John
Bellamy Foster’s summary and review of IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report.
Joanna
Person-Michener. “Must act on climate.”
John Bellamy Foster. “Be moderate…we only want THE EARTH!”
Mronline.org (7-22-22).
. . .In
terms of the scientific consensus on climate change, the reports of the United
Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are most important. The
planetary emergency is not, however, confined to climate change, and also
encompasses the entire set of planetary boundaries that are now being crossed
[CONVERGENCE], demarcating the earth as a safe home for humanity. Most of my
comments here, though, will center on climate change.
In terms of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report,
published over the course of 2021-2022, it is no longer possible for the world
entirely to avoid crossing the 1.5° C increase in global average temperature. .
. . We therefore have a very small window in which to act. Basically, meeting
this scenario means peaking global carbon emissions by 2030 and reaching net
zero carbon emissions by 2050. All of
this was outlined in the first part of AR6 on the Physical Science Basis published in August 2021.
This was followed by the publication of the IPCC’s Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability report in
February 2022, and its Mitigation report
in April 2022. . . .
[Foster’s
caution]Each
IPCC assessment report (AR1-AR6) has three parts, each of which is published
separately and is introduced by a “Summary for Policymakers,” followed by a
series of chapters. In the IPCC process scientists, reflecting the scientific consensus, write the whole draft report. But
the “Summary for Policymakers” for each published part—the only section of the
overall report that is widely read, covered by the press, and constitutes the
basis for governmental policies—is rewritten line by line by governments. Hence
the published “Summary for Policymakers” is not the actual scientific consensus document, but rather
the governmental consensus document that displaces the
former. Especially with
respect to issues of mitigation, related to social policy, governments can
obliterate the entirety of what the scientists determined.
Capitalist world
governments were particularly worried about, part 3 of AR6 on Mitigation, as drafted by scientists as of August 2021,
since it was by far the most radical IPCC treatment of the mitigation issue,
reflecting the fact that revolutionary-scale transformations of production, consumption, and
energy use (both in terms of physical and temporal scales) were now needed if
the 1.5°C pathway was to be reached—or even in order to keep the increase in
global average temperature well below 2°C. This is considered the guardrail for
avoiding irreversible out-of-control climate change, which, if crossed,
would likely lead to a global average temperature of 4.4°C (best estimate) by
the end of the century, leading to the collapse of global industrial
civilization. Chapter I of the AR6 Mitigation report
went so far as to question whether capitalism was sustainable. MORE
JOANNA PERSON-MICHENER. ‘
Must act on climate.”
On July 28 something
incredible happened. Sen. Joe Manchin and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer negotiated
a reconciliation bill called the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which includes
a path to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40 percent by 2030. This is an
enormous step toward ensuring our children have a livable future. Rev.
Clint Schnekloth, the lead pastor at Good Shepherd Lutheran in Fayetteville,
pointed out in a recent letter to the editor that climate change exacerbates
“virtually all other social injustices.”
The climate crisis
threatens lives through the increased severity and frequency of disasters,
but climate change also compromises our ability to grow enough food. The
Food and Agriculture Organization report “The State of Food Security and
Nutrition in the World” of 2021 tells us the world is at a “critical juncture.”
The number of undernourished people has been rising sharply the last four
years and the primary drivers are climate change, conflict and economic slowdowns.
Arkansas farmers know that the intermittent drought and flooding, as projected
in the National Climate Assessment, is challenging our state’s food production.
The American Psychological
Association tells us that climate change is leading to anxiety. Climate
anxiety and eco-grief are normal responses, but climate change and related
disasters can also contribute to mental health disorders like post-traumatic
stress disorder. The Next Gen Climate Survey of 2021 surveyed 1,200 youth
age 14-24 across the U.S. and found that 75 percent indicated climate change
negatively impacts their mental health.
Seeing our government’s
inadequate response to the crisis has contributed to our anxiety, but the
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 gives me hope that we can protect our livable
world. If you have friends and family who live in blue states or districts,
please encourage them to call and/or email their senators(s) and/or representative
in support of this act. They can even use this handy tool: citizensclimatelobby.org/get-loud-take-action. Arkansas
Democrat-Gazette 5 Aug 2022.
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