OMNI
OVER-POPULATION,
GROWTH, CONSUMPTION, WARMING, CLIMATE
CHANGE NEWSLETTER #5, JUNE 5, 2015.
Compiled
by Dick Bennett for a Culture of Peace, Justice, and Ecology
(#1 July 8, 2010; #2 April
23, 2012; #3 April 4, 2014; #4 June 28, 2014).
Years
it took for the human population to grow from 1 billion to 2 billion: 123;
Years
it took to grow from 6 billion to 7 billion: 22 . From YES!
(Summer 2013).
What’s at
stake: June 2013, C02 reached 400PPM after 10,000 years nearly constant at 280ppm,
and atmospheric temperature continues to rise and is approaching 2 degrees
centigrade higher than the average at the beginning of the industrial
revolution.
I asked Art for his epitome of the
Stake: ‘The
long-term historical picture is much worse than you portray. And I would
change the date a little. I guess I would say it like this:
April 2014 was the first full
month when CO2 concentrations exceeded 400 ppm. This is more than 100 ppm
higher than at any other time during the past million years. The last
time CO2 concentrations were this high was during the Pliocene era, several
million years ago and long before the era of the ice ages. During the
Pliocene, temperatures were 18 Fahrenheit degrees warmer and sea levels 70 feet
higher than they are today. We are creating a new geological age.
My blog:
War Department/Peace Department
Newsletters
Index:
See: abortion.doc, OMNI
Climate Change Forums. doc, Planned Parenthood, OMNI Population Poverty Hunger
Watch.doc (these should be one with OMNI population warming watch.doc), Sierra
Club Population Project, Worldwatch
Institute , OneWorld US,
Population Action International, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
Contents Nos. 1-4 at end.
Contents: OVER-POPULATION, GROWTH, WARMING,
CLIMATE CHANGE NEWSLETTER #5, June 2015
INTRODUCTORY
CONDITION OF WORLD WITH
INCREASING POPULATION, STOPPING POPULATION GROWTH
UN’s Christina Figueras, United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, Planet Has Exceeded Its Carrying Capacity
Change, Planet Has Exceeded Its Carrying Capacity
Ten
Billion: a Scientist’s One-Man Show
Brown, et al., Beyond
Malthus
Jamieson, Reason in a Dark
Time
Dick, Breaking the Silence
Art, Why the Silence. Dick, Note on Sierra Club.
The Last Taboo?
NWA Reaches 500,000
Weisman, Countdown
Chris Mooney’s Review of Countdown
Mazur, A Pivotal Moment, Environmental Justice
Paul Glilding, The Great Disruption
Reports on Contraception
Damon/Foster Film, Elysium, Everywhere so crowded,
everything needful so
scarce, the wealthy take off to another planet
scarce, the wealthy take off to another planet
RESISTING ORGANIZATIONS
AND THEIR MAGAZINES
See Population #4 and
earlier newsletters for more.
Sarah Thompson, Planned
Parenthood Voters of Arkansas
Negative Population Growth
(NPG)
Population Connection
Population Connection: the Oceans
Center for Biological
Diversity: Human Overpopulation =Species
Extinction
QUALIFICATIONS:
Consumption
George Monbiot
CONDITION OF WORLD WITH INCREASING POPULATION
United Nations: Planet Has Exceeded Its Carrying Capacity.
Interview of Christiana
Figueres
(INTELLIHUB) —At a
recent Climate One conference, the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, Christiana Figueres, made clear that a leading solution
to global warming includes extreme depopulation.
Speaking to the organization’s founder Greg Dalton, Figueres had
a carefully worded yet startling answer to his question on world population.
Dalton: A
related issue is fertility rates and population, a lot of people in energy and
environmental circles don’t want to go near that because its politically
charged, it’s not their issue, but isn’t it true that stopping the rise in
population could be one of the biggest levers in
driving down the rising green house gases.
Figueres: We
all know, we expect 9 billion by 2050, so yes obviously less people would exert
less pressure on the natural resources
Dalton: So
is 9 billion the forgone conclusion.. no way to change that?
Figueres: Again
there is pressure in the system to go towards that, we can get them to change
though, we can definitely change those numbers and
really should make every effort to change the
numbers because we are already
today, exceeding the planetary carrying capacity.
Climate change: how theatre
delivered a dramatic warning about the planet's future
Ten Billion – Stephen Emmott, a scientist's one-man show on
environmental woes – has been an unexpected sell-out hit. Written with Katie Mitchell.
Review by Robin McKie . The
Observer, Saturday 11 August 2012.
Stephen Emmott in Ten Billion. It's a spare, chilling and compelling work written by
him and Katie Mitchell. Photograph: Boris Horvat/AFP/Getty Images
Stephen Emmott is an unlikely candidate for a star of a
sell-out London
theatre hit. He currently uses crutches after recently losing a disc in his
spine and until last month he had never trod the boards. Yet the 52-year-old
academic has just completed a majestic run at the Royal Court . For the past three weeks, he
has filled the seats of the company's Jerwood Theatre Upstairs with audiences,
mostly young, flocking to see his solo performances of Ten Billion, a brutal but careful dissection of the likely
impact of humanity's swelling numbers on our planet.
People queuing for return tickets have been turned away
in their dozens and a restaging of the show now looks inevitable, possibly in
the Royal Court 's
main theatre next year. Emmott, a professor of computational science at Oxford University
and head of Microsoft's Computational Science laboratory in Cambridge , has also been besieged with offers
from TV companies and documentary makers who want to put his work on screen. We
have not seen the last of Ten Billion, it would seem.
And that can only be good news. Ten Billion – a
co-operation between Emmott and the distinguished director Katie Mitchell,
whose past works have included A Woman Killed With Kindness at the
National Theatre – is the most effective theatrical work that has attempted to
illustrate our planet's environmental woes that I have seen. It is spare,
chilling, moving and cunningly staged and unravels with compelling, impeccable
logic.
Forget the hunt for the Higgs boson, Emmott tells
audiences. Scientists may think that this was the greatest experiment ever
performed, but it is nothing compared to the one humanity is now carrying out
on our own planet as we pump more and more greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere, melt icecaps, destroy precious ecosystems and eradicate species in
their thousands. The end result is "one of the most disturbing evenings I
have ever spent in a theatre," wrote the Guardian's Michael
Billington.
By contrast, previous
theatrical attempts to tackle the issues of global warming, rising sea
levels and the ecological mayhem we face have been confused and tame. The
National Theatre's Greenland, staged last year, was chaotic and unfocused, for
example, while the Bush's The Contingency Plan, a double bill by Steve Waters, although highly enjoyable
and intelligently written, only touched on the depth of the crisis we face.
Certainly neither work produced the gasps that greeted
the close of Emmott's Ten Billion. We face a future in which billions
will starve, he states. Britain ,
which could come off relatively lightly when 6C rises in global temperature
take effect, will be turned into a military outpost dedicated to preventing
waves of immigrants reaching our shores. (Disturbingly, senior army officers
have recently become a common sight at climate conferences, says Emmott,
although this at least suggests that the military perceives the dangers we
face, even if politicians do not.)
So can we do anything to halt the devastation that lies
ahead? Emmott asks as he reaches the end of his show. "In truth, I think
we are already fucked," is his answer. Then he quotes the response he got
when he asked one of his younger colleagues what measures he planned to take to
ward off the worst effects of the mayhem that lies ahead. "Teach my son
how to use a gun," he was told. Cormac McCarthy would be proud.
The fact we have had to wait so long for a stage
production that effectively tackles the most important issue now facing our
species – the destruction of Earth's entire ecosystem – is perhaps surprising.
The theatre has never shied away from facing up to hard or awkward subjects as
the Royal Court 's
history attests. Edward Bond's Saved – an attack on modern poverty in
which a baby is stoned to death – was first staged here in 1965, while Bruce
Norris's scorching indictment of middle-class racism, Clybourne Park,
had its UK premiere at the Royal Court two years ago.
So why the lack of dramatic action when it comes to
planetary degradation? The answer has much to do with the complex nature of the
subject. When you are trying to outline the impact of swelling populations,
rising middle-class aspirations, increases in carbon dioxide outputs and
melting icecaps, the issues of character and narrative can get confused. Ten
Billion succeeded by simply avoiding them. There is no action.
Emmott merely stands in front of a desk within a set that
is a recreation of his own office, right down to the slowly ageing tangerine
that he has left in one corner. "I am a scientist, not an actor – as will
quickly become clear," he announces. Then he proceeds with his analysis
with the help of some neat video graphics. The result is more lecture than
play, though I would argue that this is a perfectly reasonable theatrical
mechanism, one that has been deployed recently in London
by the Tricycle theatre in its staging of the public inquiry into the Stephen
Lawrence case and by the Finborough theatre in its depiction of recent events
in Syria .
In Emmott's case, his main concern is the ecological
costs that underlie our daily lives: the billions of barrels of oil drilled
each year, the billions of passenger miles flown and billions of tonnes of
carbon pumped into the atmosphere. Two years ago, Russia halted its grain exports
after its harvest failed. As a result, there were food riots in many countries,
including several in the Middle East . The Arab
Spring erupted in their wake. Today, an even greater harvest failure is
threatened in the United
States , where scorching temperatures have
devastated crops. The implications for civil unrest across the planet are
profound. Add to this the prospect of even greater temperature rises, triggered
by increasing emissions of greenhouse gases that are in turn fed by our
undiminished urge to burn fossil fuels and you begin to get a feel for the
troubles we face. Populations are
soaring but our capacity to feed ourselves is dwindling as the heat is
turned up on our planet.
There is nothing explicitly new in this analysis. What is
fresh is its measured, uninterrupted exposition. Emmott remains remarkably calm
throughout his performance although you can still sense his concealed fury at
our failure to take action. There are no Paxmans to quibble over details and no
climate gainsayers to make arcane or inaccurate objections. And that is the
real lesson of Ten Billion. Without
the clamorous voices of climate change deniers
who constantly question the minutiae of scientists' research or cherry-pick
data, Emmott has shown that it is possible to make a straightforward, telling
demonstration of the dreadful problems we face. We need a lot more sober, pithy
work like this.
Emmott believes it
is too late now to prevent our planet burning. Others, myself included, believe
there is still time to take action. Making sure that the message of Ten
Billion is not lost would be. . . .
See the critique by
Chris Goodall http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jul/09/stephen-emmott-population-book-misanthropic
A good, brief, older book is Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge, by
the Lester Brown, with Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil (Norton, 1999). It's quite an
eye-opener. I've always thought that environmentalists should pay more
important to the planet's overpopulation. We should aim for an eventual
long-term stable population of two to four billion. Cheers -
Art
On the
bicentennial of Malthus's legendary essay on the tendency for population to
grow more rapidly than the food supply, the question facing the world is not
whether population growth will slow, but how.
Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population
Challenge (The Worldwatch Environmental Alert Series)
by Lester R. Brown (Author) , Gary T. Gardner (Author) , Brian Halweil (Author)
Human demands
are pressing up against more and more of the Earth's limits. This book
from the Worldwatch Institute examines the impacts of population growth on
global resources and services, including food, fresh water, fisheries, jobs,
education, income, and health. Despite the current hype of a "birth dearth"
in parts of Europe and Japan ,
the fact remains that human numbers are projected to increase by over 3 billion
by 2050. Rapidly growing nations are likely to outstrip the carrying capacity
of their natural support systems. Governments worn down by several decades of
rapid population growth often cannot mobilize the resources necessary to cope
with emerging threats such as new diseases, food and water shortages, and mass
unemployment. Already, in several African nations, hunger, disease, and social
disintegration are leading to rising death rates, checking the rapid growth of
population. Either nations with surging populations will quickly shift to
smaller families or nature will impose its own, less humane limits to growth. As the world enters the new millennium, no
challenge is perhaps so urgent as the need to quickly reduce population growth.
Pakistan 's population is
projected to increase from 148 million to 357 million, surpassing that of the United States
before 2050. Zimbabwe , Botswana , Zambia ,
Namibia , and Swaziland ,
where over one-fifth of the adult population is infected with HIV, will likely
reach population stability shortly after the year 2000, as AIDS-related deaths
offset soaring birth rates. A Worldwatch Environmental Alert book. Newsmaking
press conference on publication National press and television coverage
Illustrated.
DALE JAMIESON, REASON IN A
DARK TIME: WHY THE STRUGGLE AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE FAILED—AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR
OUR FUTURE. OXFORD UP, 2014.
Description
Description
Reason in a Dark Time
Why the Struggle Against Climate Change Failed -- and What It
Means for Our Future by Dale Jamieson
·
Not a "save the earth" book but a sober diagnosis of
why we have failed and a proposal for concrete steps for how to move ahead
·
Argues that common sense notions of responsibility are
inadequate for moralizing acts that contribute to climate change
·
Reflects on how we, as individuals, can live meaningful lives in
the face of climate change
·
Treats the scientific, historical, economic, and political
dimensions of climate changes as well as the philosophical ones
Dick, Breaking Through the Silence
Population growth was claimed as a
significant danger to the planet by Paul and Anne Ehrlich in The Population Bomb (1968), which was
falsely represented in the mass media. Population and warming/climate change were
connected as early as 1975 by the Republican Ford Administration in NSS
Memorandum 200, which was suppressed. Little attention has been given to these
connections by the mass media, and strong
business and religious denial has also silenced official and public
discussion and action. Now at last,
strengthened by books and articles like that of Alan Weisman’s Countdown, which give comprehensive
analysis (human numbers and consumption), significant progress can be made
against the harms of population growth.
Several books
read for OMNI350 Climate Change Forums included attention to the necessity of
stopping population growth. Here are two
of them. Richard Heinberg, The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality (we must end economic and population
growth quickly before massive suffering occurs, pp. 212-215, and elsewhere). Mark Hertsgaard, Hot
(p.
282: “need to curb both human appetites and human numbers”). We did not discuss Firor and Jacobsen, The Crowded Greenhouse (p. 189:
two revolutions are necessary “if human beings are to flourish safely on
Earth”—social and technical). See below
for more books.
MORE
ON SILENCE
In
Countdown Weisman discusses a
published report by 28 scientists on the “nine planetary boundaries, beyond
which the world would enter a phase shift that could prove cataclysmic for
humanity” (409). Three of the
boundaries have already been breeched:
climate change, nitrogen siphoned from the atmosphere, and biodiversity
loss. The nine do not include population
growth, which Weisman explains as follows:
“Behind each of these was the same unspoken cause: cumulative human presence,
for which they did not hazard a boundary.
A decision to limit one’s own
species is so emotionally loaded that the very idea is as troubling to
scientists as it is to any human.”
ART
HOBSON’S EXPLANATION of the SILENCE
Many liberals are wary of
any talk about global overpopulation, while other liberals (among whom I count
you and me) are quite concerned about overpopulation and consider it one of the
underlying threats to the planet. The reason for this split among
liberals is immigration, and perhaps political correctness. The “wary”
liberals fear that any strong action on overpopulation will have implications
for immigration into the US and other countries, because (1) immigration
increases the US population and it is US overconsumption (partly) that is
devouring the planet, and (2) all nations (e.g. Mexico) need to keep their own
populations down rather than shipping them abroad. Liberals such as the
late “exponential growth” expert Al Bartlett (and me) who are extremely
concerned about overpopulation would prefer that immigration into the US be
reduced, on overpopulation grounds. So I conjecture that those who object
to Weisman’s book “Countdown" are in the “wary” camp of liberals who
regard talk of overpopulation as code for immigration reductions or even for
xenophobia. It’s important: This split has partly ruptured
the Sierra Club. Many
liberals, including Al Bartlett and me, have been quite annoyed with the
national leadership of Sierra Club because they will not recognize
overpopulation as a leading cause of environmental degradation. The
reason, again, is that Sierra Club also supports immigration, and they detect a
conflict between the two. I quit Sierra Club over this issue and
switched to the NRDC. I am deeply concerned about overpopulation, including
U.S. overpopulation.
SIERRA
CLUB
The
Sierra Club now pushes the importance of population in the latest no. of Sierra.
Jake Abrahamson. “Fighting Climate Change with Family
Planning.” Sierra (May/June
2012), pp. 48-49. Recall Lester Brown’s
recognition of the significance of population:
“stabilize climate, stabilize population.” Jake Abrahamson’s conclusion: “A concerted, worldwide family-planning
campaign can be just as effective at reducing C02 ouput as conserving electricity,
trapping carbon, or using alternative fuels.”
Two dramatic graphs make the case for the importance of stopping
population growth, showing the steady increase of CO2 emission each year from
1962 to 2012 (9 billion tons) and projecting the tonnage in the year 2062 to be
18 billion (from Pacala and Socolow of
Princeton’s Carbon Mitigation Initiative).
The author also presents “Five Ways to Stabilize Population Growth.” --Dick
THE LAST TABOO? Why Can’t We Talk About Overpopulation?
www.motherjones.com/.../population-growth-india-vatican
Mother Jones
Population: The
Last Taboo · Environment. → International ... There are 7 billion
humans on earth, so why can't we talk about population? —By Julia Whitty.
www.howmany.org/taboo.php
Overpopulation is a *taboo*
topic because it makes people uncomfortable. ... fear are targeting vulnerable
families after last month's
devastating earthquake.
Liberals and Klein’s This Changes Everything
See my newsletter on the book and
analysis of the review by Foster and Clark, which examines “liberal” reviews of
Klein. http://jamesrichardbennett.blogspot.com/2015/04/naomi-klein-newsletter-1-this-changes.html
BUSINESS AS USUAL: THUMBS UP FOR 500,000: CELEBRATE GROWTH, CAPITALISM, AND POPULATION
IN NWA
“Our region officially
surpassed the mark of 500,000 residents,” which “can attract the attention of
location agents and corporations looking for places to do business. We already know Northwest Arkansas has a lot
to offer. This new number will hopefully
open some eyes to it.” AD-G (April 6, 2015). The relentless, cheerful,
blind, and lethal commitment to growth remains little changed despite our
efforts. What more must we do, what new
tactics use? We can press the UofA more.
Ask them why are they so silent. Write
and call the Chancellor, the relevant departments. You are a member of a public
organization—Rotary, Democrats or Republicans, etc.? Push at them to discuss and take action. Carry around a copy of Weisman’s Countdown to loan. --Dick
OMNI’S BOOK FORUM
Only a few months ago we were trying to digest
the indigestible even with Lolly’s remarkable help: two excellent anthologies containing together
57 essays. But although we did not
discuss them, did not try to sort out the very important from the less
important, rushing on to another book, they did accomplish one important thing
resoundingly, combined with the many books we had read previously: we could feel we had covered the field
comprehensively. On the other hand, we
were left scattered in many directions, and despite eight years of discussion,
we still had not grasped one or more directions for advocacy and action. (Our excellent fee/dividend campaign is a
separate activity.)
Heinberg’s latest book is another
anthology, shorter than the Worldwatch collections, but still demanding the
shift of our attention and capacity fifteen times. And again we will be left in the learning
mode, still exploring the paths and roadways, while atmospheric temperature
rises. And equally troubling is my
sense, from the glimpse at Heinberg’s Contents, that we have already covered
the topics of his book, or most of them.
His essays go back four years.
So I want to suggest, before we discuss
Klein again, that each of us give time to considering the books and ideas we
have discussed to choose one or two we did not discuss enough. If we are to believe the scientists, the
time is short for action, it’s time to focus.
And since I am proposing, I’ll do what I
suggest—choose a book about a major cause of warming and cc which we discussed
cursorily.
My first choice is Klein’s This Changes Everything. Her massive personal and scholarly research of
the harms from our economic system provides a solid foundation for all
responses by individuals and groups, for our fee/dividend task force for
example. However, because we are in the
middle of discussing the book, I’ll turn to another book, one we have
discussed, to recommend for our next book after Klein.
That book is Alan Weisman’s on population growth--Countdown: Our Last Best Hope for a Future on Earth. Recent
UN studies project the rise of population by 2050 at 9 to 10 billion people and
by 2100 at 12 billion. Weisman explains
the urgent need to curb population growth now,
how enormously much our actions today
will affect future population growth, because fertility rates today determine
population size in the future. The
editor of Population Connection writes: “the more children people have today, the
more adults there will be in the future who will have their own children, and
so on. Populations grow exponentially,
and the larger the base, the longer it will take to slow the momentum created
by rapid population growth today.”
(World population has grown by more than 810 million—two and a half
times the size of the US—since 2005.)
LARC
That is, we do not have time for
education and economics to stop and reverse population growth. In addition we must make a real, rapid
investment in family planning, especially in contraception. Fortunately, medical science has provided us
with a long-acting reversible
contraception (LARC), and its success is already proven: its global use nearly
doubled from 2006 to 2013; its failure rate is less than 1 percent; and user
error is not a factor (set it and forget it).
LARC’s potential for a rapid decrease in the fertility rate is possible now. See
Population Connection (April
2015). Also see Population Connection (Dec. 2014), “Pediatricians [the American
Academy of Pediatrics] Endorse LARC Methods for Teens” (p. 6).
I urge us to return to support the
international effort to stabilize populations by increasing family planning and
contraception by rereading Weisman and urging others to read his book,
subscribing to Population Connection,
and supporting universal access to
voluntary contraception.
Practically, this would mean the creation of another task force
complementary to our Book Forum and Fee/Dividend campaign with CCL. Dick
ALAN WEISMAN, COUNTDOWN: OUR LAST, BEST HOPE FOR A FUTURE
ON EARTH? Little, Brown, 2013.
COUNTDOWN wins a Los Angeles Times Book
Prize!
Read the announcement here.
Read the announcement here.
Countdown is a gripping
narrative by a fair-minded investigative journalist who interviewed dozens of
scientists and experts in various fields in 21 countries. “ –The Wall Street
Journal
A new book
by the author of THE WORLD WITHOUT US. “A riveting read….a major work…rigorous
and provoking.” —Booklist (starred review)
With a million more of us
every 4½ days on a planet that's not getting any bigger, prospects for a
sustainable human future seem ever more in doubt. For this long awaited
follow-up book, Alan Weisman traveled to more than 20 countries to ask what
experts agreed were the probably the most important questions on Earth-and also
the hardest: How many humans can the planet hold without capsizing? How robust
must the Earth's ecosystem be to assure our continued existence? Can we know
which other species are essential to our survival? And, how might we actually
arrive at a stable, optimum population, and design an economy to allow genuine
prosperity without endless growth?
The result is a landmark work of reporting: devastating, urgent, and, ultimately, deeply hopeful. By vividly detailing the burgeoning effects of our cumulative presence, Countdown by Alan Weisman reveals what may be the fastest, most acceptable, practical, and affordable way of returning our planet and our presence on it to balance.
The result is a landmark work of reporting: devastating, urgent, and, ultimately, deeply hopeful. By vividly detailing the burgeoning effects of our cumulative presence, Countdown by Alan Weisman reveals what may be the fastest, most acceptable, practical, and affordable way of returning our planet and our presence on it to balance.
- See more at: http://littlebrown.com/countdown.html#sthash.h6JjOAua.dpuf
ANOTHER BOOK BY WEISMAN, THE
WORLD WITHOUT US
A penetrating, page-turning
tour of a post-human Earth |
|
In The World Without Us,
Alan Weisman offers an utterly original approach to questions of humanity's
impact on the planet: he asks us to envision our Earth, without us.
In this far-reaching narrative, Weisman explains how our massive infrastructure would collapse and finally vanish without human presence; what of our everyday stuff may become immortalized as fossils; how copper pipes and wiring would be crushed into mere seams of reddish rock; why some of our earliest buildings might be the last architecture left; and how plastic, bronze sculpture, radio waves, and some man-made molecules may be our most lasting gifts to the universe. |
>
|
The
World Without Us reveals how, just days after humans
disappear, floods in New York's subways would start eroding the city's
foundations, and how, as the world’s cities crumble, asphalt jungles give way
to real ones. It describes the distinct ways that organic and
chemically-treated farms would revert to wild, how billions more birds would
flourish, and how cockroaches in unheated cities would perish without us.
Drawing on the expertise of engineers, atmospheric scientists, art conservators,
zoologists, oil refiners, marine biologists, astrophysicists, religious
leaders from rabbis to the Dalai Lama, and paleontologists – who describe a
pre-human world inhabited by megafauna like giant sloths that stood taller
than mammoths – Weisman illustrates what the planet might be like today, if
not for us.
From
places already devoid of humans (a last fragment of primeval European forest;
the Korean DMZ; Chernobyl), Weisman reveals Earth's tremendous capacity for
self-healing. As he shows which human devastations are indelible, and which
examples of our highest art and culture would endure longest, Weisman's
narrative ultimately drives toward a radical but persuasive solution that
doesn't depend on our demise. It is narrative nonfiction at its finest, and
in posing an irresistible concept with both gravity and a highly-readable
touch, it looks deeply at our effects on the planet in a way that no other
book has.
|
ALAN WEISMAN, COUNTDOWN
Can We Finally Have a Serious Talk About
Population?
Alan Weisman, best-selling author of "The World Without
Us," tackles the world's exploding human population in his new book,
"Countdown."
—By Chris Mooney in Mother Jones
| Fri
Sep. 27, 2013
·
A view of Sao Paulo, Brazil, one of
the world's largest megacities with nearly 20 million people. Giuliano
Colliva/Zuma Press
Climate
Desk has launched a new science podcast, Inquiring Minds, cohosted by contributing
writer Chris Mooney and
neuroscientist and musician Indre Viskontas. To
subscribe via iTunes, click here. You
can also follow the show on Twitter at@inquiringshow, and like us on Facebook.
Today, as the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change releases its latest megareport, averring
a 95 percent certainty that humans are heating up the planet, there's an
unavoidable subtext: The growing number of humans on the planet
in the first place.
The figures, after all, are
staggering: In 1900, there were just 1.65 billion of us; now, there are 7.2
billion. That's more than two doublings, and the next billion-human increase is
expected to occur over the short space of just 12 years.According to projections,
meanwhile, by 2050 the Earth will be home to some 9.6 billion people, all
living on the same rock, all at once.
So why not talk more about
population, and treat it as a serious issue? It's a topic that Mother
Jones has tackled directly in the past, because taboos notwithstanding, it's a
topic that just won't go away.
The bestselling
environmental journalist Alan Weisman agrees. In this episode of Inquiring Minds (click above to stream audio), he
explains why, following on his 2007 smash hit The World Without
Us, he too decided to centrally take on the issue of human
population in his just-published new book Countdown:
Our Last, Best Hope for a Future on Earth?
The new
release by Alan Weisman, bestselling author of The World Without Us.Little,
Brown & Co.
"Population is a loaded
topic, and people who otherwise know better, great environmentalists, often
times are very, very timid about going there," Weisman explains on the
podcast. "And I decided as a journalist, I should go there, and find out,
is it really a problem, and if so, is there anything acceptable that we can do
about it?"
The World Without
Us imagined a planet rapidly returning to a natural state
in the absence of humans. Where that book represented an ambitious thought
experiment, Weisman's new book is an experience. He traveled to 21 countries—from
Israel to Mexico, Pakistan to Niger—to report on how different cultures
are responding to booming populations and the strain this is putting on their
governments and resources.
Strikingly, he found that
countries are coping (or not coping) with this problem in vastly different
ways. For instance:
• Pakistan: Current
population: 193 million. "By the year 2030, they're going to have about
395 million people," Weisman says. "And they're the size of
Texas." (Texas' population? Twenty-six million.)
• The Philippines:
Current population: nearly 105 million. "As the rest of the planet's
population quadrupled in a century, the head count here quintupled in
half that time," Weisman writes in Countdown.
• Iran:
Current population: nearly 80 million. Yet unlike Pakistan and the Philippines,
Weisman says, Iran managed its population growth with "probably the most
humane program ever in the history of the planet. They got down toreplacement rate a
year faster than China, and it was a totally voluntary program. No coercion at
all." (Note, though, that as Weisman explains in his book, there was one
Iranian government "disincentive" to having a large number of
children: "elimination of the individual subsidy for food, electricity,
telephone, and appliances for any child after the first three.")
Alan Weisman
in Golestan National Park, Iran Beckie Kravetz
Weisman is well aware of the
controversy his book invites. In particular, political libertarians are very
fond of refuting the concerns of population crusaders, from the Reverend Thomas
Malthus to the ecologist and Population Bomb author Paul Ehrlich,
with the claim that human ingenuity has a history of proving them wrong. The
key episode: the Green Revolution of
the late 1960s, led by plant geneticist Norman Borlaug, in which dramatic new
agricultural technologies and crop strains were credited with averting what
might otherwise have been mass famines.
But Weisman has his response
ready (he chronicles Borlaug's life and triumphs in the book). "Everybody
says that Norman Borlaug, the great plant geneticist, he disproved Malthus and
Ehrlich forever," he explains. "It's kind of cherry-picked, because
the part that they neglect to add, Norman
Borlaug's Nobel acceptance speech, he didn't sit there congratulating
himself—as he was congratulated by others—for saving more lives than any other
human in history. He said, 'We have
bought the world some time, but unless population control and increased food
production go hand in hand, we are going to lose this.'"
So what's Weisman's
solution? Importantly, he is no supporter of coercive population control
measures such as China's infamous one-child policy. Rather, Weisman makes
a powerful case that the best way to manage the global population is by empowering women, through both education
and access to contraception—so that they can make more informed choices
about family size and the kind of lives they want for themselves and their
children.
"The libertarians are
going to like the solution that ultimately comes up," Weisman says.
"And that is, letting everybody decide how many children they want, which
means giving every woman on Earth—and then every man, because male
contraceptives are coming—giving them universal access to contraception, and
letting them decide for themselves."
You can listen to the full
show here:
This
episode of Inquiring Minds also features a discussion of the latest
myths circulating on global warming, and the brave new world of gene therapy
that we're entering—where being rich might be your key ticket to the finest
health care.
To catch
future shows right when they release, subscribe to Inquiring Minds viaiTunes. You
can also follow the show on Twitter at @inquiringshow and like us on Facebook.
CHRIS MOONEY Chris Mooney
is the author of four books, including the New York Times bestselling The Republican War on Science.
He was a science journalist and podcaster for Mother Jones and
host of Climate Desk Live from 2012 to 2014. He is now a staff
writer at The Washington Post.
IF YOU LIKED THIS,
YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE...
What
unites the Vatican, lefties, conservatives, environmentalists, and scientists
in a conspiracy of silence?
Readers—and
experts—hash it out in an online forum. Join the fray.
Audio:
Enviro journalist Fred Pearce talks to PBS Need to Know.
A Pivotal Moment: Population, Justice, and the
Environmental Challenge –
October 16, 2009,
by Laurie Ann Mazur (Editor).
With
contributions by leading demographers, environmentalists, and reproductive
health advocates, A Pivotal Moment offers a new perspective on
the complex connection between population dynamics and environmental quality.
It presents the latest research on the relationship between population growth
and climate change, ecosystem health, and other environmental issues. It
surveys the new demographic landscape—in which population growth rates have
fallen, but human numbers continue to increase. It looks back at the lessons of
the last half century while looking forward to population policies that are
sustainable and just.
A Pivotal
Moment embraces the concept of “population justice,” which holds that inequality is a root cause of
both rapid population growth and environmental degradation. By addressing
inequality—both gender and economic—we can reduce growth rates and build a
sustainable future.
THE GREAT DISRUPTION: why the
climate crisis will bring on the end of shopping and the birth of a new world by Paul Gilding. Bloomsbury, 2011.
[An optimistic take on the world 2010.
I haven’t read the book, and the reviews I have seen don’t mention
family planning.]]
Paul Gilding’s book The
Great Disruption was released around the world over 2011 to wide acclaim.
It is now being translated into various languages. The Dutch edition has been released (see
here) with the German version due for release in late 2012.
A bracing assessment of the planetary crisis that we can no longer
avoid-and the once-in-an-epoch chance it offers to build a better world.
“One of those who has been
warning me of [a coming crisis] for a long time is Paul Gilding, the Australian
environmental business expert. He has a name for this moment-when both Mother
Nature and Father Greed have hit the wall at once-‘The Great Disruption.’ ”
– Thomas Friedman in the New York Times
It’s time to stop just worrying
about climate change, says Paul Gilding. We need instead to brace for impact
because global crisis is no longer avoidable. This Great Disruption started in
2008, with spiking food and oil prices and dramatic ecological changes, such as
the melting ice caps. It is not simply about fossil fuels and carbon
footprints. We have come to the end of
Economic Growth, Version 1.0, a world economy based on consumption and waste,
where we lived beyond the means of our planet’s ecosystems and resources.
The Great Disruption offers a stark and
unflinching look at the challenge humanity faces-yet also a deeply optimistic
message. The coming decades will see loss, suffering, and conflict as our
planetary overdraft is paid; however, they will also bring out the best
humanity can offer: compassion, innovation, resilience, and adaptability.
Gilding tells us how to fight-and win-what he calls The One Degree War to
prevent catastrophic warming of the earth, and how to start today.
The crisis represents a rare
chance to replace our addiction to growth with an ethic of sustainability, and
it’s already happening. It’s also an unmatched business opportunity: Old
industries will collapse while new companies will literally reshape our
economy. In the aftermath of the Great Disruption, we will measure “growth” in
a new way. It will mean not quantity of stuff but quality and happiness of
life. Yes, there is life after shopping.
STOPPING AND REDUCING POPULATION GROWTH:
ARTICLES and REPORTS ON CONTRACEPTION (in chronological order mainly 2010-2013,
selected from Weisman’s bibliography for Ch. 17 and Epilogue)
Cohen, Susan. “The United States and the United Nations
Population Fund…”
The Guttmacher Report on Public Policy, 2, 1 (Feb. 1999).
The Guttmacher Report on Public Policy, 2, 1 (Feb. 1999).
Moreland, Scott, et
al. “World Population Prospects and
Unmet Need for Family
Planning.” Washington, DC: Futures Group, April 2010.
Planning.” Washington, DC: Futures Group, April 2010.
Engelman, Robert. “Population, Climate Change, and Women’s
Lives.” World
Watch Report 183, Worldwatch Institute, 2010.
Watch Report 183, Worldwatch Institute, 2010.
United Nations Population
Fund (UNFPA) Annual Report: 2010.
“Obama Administration:
Health Insurers Must Cover Birth Control with No
Copays.” Huffington Post (August 1, 201l).
Copays.” Huffington Post (August 1, 201l).
Report to Prohibit Funding to the United Nations
Population Fund. U.S. House of
Representatives, 112th Congress, 2d Session, Jan. 17, 2012, 112-36.
Representatives, 112th Congress, 2d Session, Jan. 17, 2012, 112-36.
Cabal, Louisa. “Regressive Contraception Polices ‘Failing
Women’ in EU.”
Public Service Europe (March 23, 2012).
Public Service Europe (March 23, 2012).
“The U.S. Government and
International Family Planning & Reproductive
Health.” Fact sheet, U.S. Global Health Policy, The Henry J. Kaiser Family
Foundation, April 2012.
Health.” Fact sheet, U.S. Global Health Policy, The Henry J. Kaiser Family
Foundation, April 2012.
“Melinda Gates’ New
Crusade. . . .” Daily Beast (May 7, 2012).
Temmerman, M., et al. “A Call for a Family Planning Surge.” FVV in
ObGyn, 4,
1 (2012): 25-29
1 (2012): 25-29
“Rio+20 Conference Rejects
Calls to Support Abortion, Population Control.”
Catholic World News (June 20, 2012).
Catholic World News (June 20, 2012).
Sethi, Nitin. “Reproductive Rights Fail to Find Mention in
Rio Declaration.”
Times of India (June 22, 2012)
Times of India (June 22, 2012)
Singh, S. and J. E.
Darroch. Adding It Up: Costs and Benefits
of Contraceptive
Services –Estimates for 2012. NY: Guttmacher Institute and UNMPF United
Nations Population Fund.
Services –Estimates for 2012. NY: Guttmacher Institute and UNMPF United
Nations Population Fund.
“’233 Million Women’
Lacking Contraception in 2015.” Agence-France Presse
(March 11, 2013).
(March 11, 2013).
Alkema, Leontine, et
al. “National, Regional, and Global
Rates…Between 1990
and 2015…” Lancet (March 12, 2013).
and 2015…” Lancet (March 12, 2013).
FILM, ELYSIUM, Matt Damon, Jodie Foster
In 2159, two classes
of people exist. The wealthy live on
Elysium, a man-made space station and the rest live on an overpopulated and
destroyed earth. Damon plays a man who
strives to bring equality to these polarized worlds.
Roger Ebert’s
reviews: “The film is set in 2154, when the planet has
been ravaged by disease, pollution, and overpopulation” (causing ravaging scarcity
of all live-giving things).
Roger Ebert’s review:
RESISTING ORGANIZATIONS AND THEIR MAGAZINES
See Pop #4 and earlier
newsletters.
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTERS
OF ARKANSAS
Sarah B. Thompson, Board
Member, v-s.thompson@hotmail.com
, 479-957-8892
Negative
Population Growth
NPG
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Home http://www.npg.org/
More Nonsense on Inexhaustible Resources from The Wall Street
Journal
by Leon Kolankiewicz http://www.npg.org/
Negative Population Growth, Inc. (NPG) is a national nonprofit
membership organization. It was founded in 1972 to educate the American public
and political leaders about the devastating effects of overpopulation on our
environment, resources and standard of living. We believe that our nation is
already vastly overpopulated in terms of the long-range carrying capacity of
its resources and environment.
We
urgently need, therefore, a National Population Policy
with the goal of eventually stabilizing our population at a sustainable level, far
below today's, after an interim period of negative growth.
Most politicians, big business and its supporting economists call
for growth as a solution to all our problems. Apparently, they believe in
perpetual growth, which is a mathematical absurdity on a finite planet. There
must be limits. Science is demonstrating that human population and consumption in the United States and the world are
already too large and are destroying the natural systems that support us.
We must not simply stop population growth; we must turn it around.
Since 1972, NPG has been making that case. We do not simply
identify the problems, we propose solutions.
A New Series: We are introducing a new series of articles under
the title The President's Column. As they appear the articles will be listed
chronologically in this section "News and Commentary".
An Introduction to the President’s Column
by Don Mann, President, NPG, Inc.
Since NPG was founded over 40 years ago I have been convinced that
NPG at bottom is an economic theory: namely, that our goal should be to
maximize per capita income and wealth for all, in a way that would be
sustainable for the very long term, and that the only way to achieve that goal
is by a negative rate of population growth until our economy has been reduced
to a sustainable size.
Read More. http://www.npg.org/
New NPG Paper Sees State of the Union As Touting Further
Population Growth
by NPG on February
11, 2015 in Press Releases Comments
Analysis of recent State of the Union address finds it “missed a
real opportunity” to educate and mobilize the American public on major
troublesome trends.
Alexandria, VA (February 3, 2015) – In response to President
Obama’s January 20th State of the Union address, Negative Population Growth
(NPG) will release a new Forum[…]
Continue Reading → http://www.npg.org/
State of the Union Address: Touting More Growth with More People
by David Simcox on
February 11, 2015 in Forum Papers Comments
State of the Union Address:
Touting More Growth with More People INTRODUCTION The President’s annual
laundry-listing State of the Union address on January 20, 2015 has already been
parsed and probed for advantages and potential traps by major media, political
think tanks, interest groups and lobbies. But what might the current and
prospective government programs […]
Continue Reading → http://www.npg.org/
Negative Population Growth Offering Over $10,000 in 2015
Scholarships
by NPG on February
3, 2015 in Press Releases Comments
Funds to be awarded to Essay and Photography Contest winners.
Alexandria, VA (February 3, 2015) – Negative Population Growth
(NPG), the nation’s premier organization dedicated to educating Americans
regarding the damaging effects of overpopulation, is seeking students
interested in competing for academic scholarships ranging from $500 to
$2,500.[…]
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POPULATION
CONNECTION
1.
Population
Connection, Google Search, Feb. 14, 2014, First page
This map shows Total Fertility Rate (number of children a woman
will have in her lifetime) across our planet, where the most rapid population growth
will occur in ...
Zero
Population Growth (ZPG) was co-founded in 1968 by Paul ...
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Contact
Us. Office Headquarters:
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About
Us. Since 1968, Population Connection (formerly Zero ...
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When
Population Connection was founded as Zero Population ...
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Population
Connection magazine. Check out the latest issue of ...
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Wikipedia
Population Connection is a 501(c)(3) organization based in Washington D.C. , United States that attempts to stop
what they believe is an unsustainable rate of ...
Loading USA
population. ... Japan 's Aging Population: 4 Reasons
Why This is Good News ... Population Education is a program
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Jun 11, 2009 - Uploaded by populationconnection
Population Connection - "World Population" .... New World Order Plan to Kill 90% of the Worlds
Populationby ...
Charity Navigator
Population Connection, formerly Zero Population Growth or ZPG, was founded in 1968 as
the national grassroots population organization that educates young ...
???
Thanks Dick. PP is a wonderful organization, but I
hardly ever go to meetings. Omni's climate change events (book forums,
demonstrations mainly) are among the very few exceptions. Al Gore is
certainly right, overpopulation is important--although I would change
"must" to "should" in his statement. The main thing
that must be done is to put a realistic price on carbon emissions. I
don't know of any good recent books that stress the overpopulation problem.
POPULATION
CONNECTION SPECIAL NUMBER ON OCEANS “’Man’s
Reckless Abuse of the Planet” Threatens Oceans”
(December
2014)
Contents:
“The Oceans After
Rachel Carson” by Robert K. Musil.
Carson became the mother of the movement to protect the oceans with her
trilogy of best-selling ocean books (Under
the Sea-Wind, The Sea Around Us, The Edge of the Sea). In the preface of the 1961 edition of The Sea Around Us she warned of dangers
of nuclear testing to human health and why dumping radioactive waste at sea was
foolhardy.
“The Disaster We’ve
Wrought on the World’s Oceans May Be Irrevocable” by Alex Renton. An excellent survey of the causes of the
disaster: climate change, carbon
dioxide, changing ocean biogeochemistry, acidification, dead zones, pollution,
over-fishing. Solutions? “…above all, simply stopping the burning of
fossil fuels.”
“Our Ocean,”
Conference, June 16-17, 2014, U.S. Department of State, Washington, D.C. Remarks by Secretary of State John Kerry and
Leonardo DiCaprio. Nearly 90 nations
represented, resulting in over $800 million in conservation commitments. DiCaprio recently gave $3 million and pledged
$7 million more to supporting ocean conservation projects.
Also articles on the
possible impacts of the Republican election victory on family planning
programs, teaching about endangered oceans, editorials from newspapers on
contraception, and more.
--Dick
Center
for Biological Diversity
Human Overpopulation,
Species Extinction
The world population
has hit a whopping 7 billion. Join our new national campaign to get the word
out about human overpopulation and the species extinction crisis.
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HOME > CAMPAIGNS
> OVERPOPULATION > 7 BILLION AND COUNTING
Current world population:
7,011,059,742
and get more involved with our Take-action
Toolbox.
Get the latest on the
Center's population work: http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/
Interactive map:
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Condoms
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http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/
Overpopulation and Extinction
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Oceans
Overpopulation and
Urban Wildlands
Get Pop X, the
Center’s newsletter on human overpopulation.
Top 10 U.S.
Endangered Species Threatened by Overpopulation
7 BILLION AND COUNTING
Our planet has
reached a staggering milestone: On October 31,2011, the world population reached 7 billion people
eking out a living. By the end of the century, it’ll top 10 billion.
Overpopulation and
overconsumption are the root causes of environmental destruction. They’re
driving species extinct, destroying wildlife habitat, and undermining the basic
needs of all life at an unprecedented rate. It has to stop.
That’s why the Center
for Biological Diversity has launched an ambitious new national campaign, 7 Billion and Counting.
And we need your
help. By hosting and attending local events, handing out Endangered Species Condoms, writing letters to the editor and
taking this discussion online, you can play an important role in highlighting
the connection between overpopulation, overconsumption and the extinction of
plants and animals around the globe.
We’re also giving you
a way to understand this global crisis at a local level. Our new interactive
map quickly shows which endangered species live where you do — and are
threatened by the effects of overpopulation.
So take action today
to speak out about 7 billion, watch our
video ad that’s reaching more than a million people a day in New York
City’s Times Square, and then sign up for Pop X, our monthly e-newsletter on
overpopulation and the species extinction crisis.
The world’s human
population has doubled since 1970 and shows no signs of letting up. After
hitting a harrowing new high of 7
billion on Oct. 31, 2011, it has continued to skyrocket — and will do so
for the rest of the century.
Our planet is in the
midst of its sixth mass extinction.
Hundreds of plant and animal species are disappearing from our planet every
day, never to return. In fact, scientists say species today are going extinct
100 to 1,000 times faster than normal. They’re going extinct because of us —
people.
We’ve already
witnessed the devastating effects of overpopulation on biodiversity: Species
abundant in North America just two centuries ago — from the woodland bison of
West Virginia and Arizona’s Merriam’s elk to the Rocky Mountain grasshopper and
Puerto Rico’s Culebra parrot — have been wiped out by growing human numbers.
The Center for Biological Diversity is the
world’s only environmental group working full-time to raise awareness about the
link between booming human population growth and wildlife extinctions happening
around the world.
In 2010, the Center —
working through a network of more than 5,000 volunteers — gave away 350,000
Endangered Species Condoms. The colorfully packaged condoms are a lively way to
get conversations started about how overpopulation is crowding out other forms
of life — and reducing the quality of our own.
Through our new 7
Billion and Counting campaign, we’re giving away 100,000 more condoms as a way
to keep the conversation going about overpopulation.
Join our growing
movement of people committed to elevating awareness of this ecological and
human crisis. Learn more from our FAQ page, get in-depth information on our
resources page, get talking points in our fact sheet, join the discussion on
Facebook and take action in our campaign to mobilize people on this critical
issue.
Talking about
overpopulation means talking about saving species around the planet, whether
it’s polar bears, wolves, bluefin tuna, penguins or the Miami blue butterfly.
All of them — and all
of us — are counting on you.
ACTIONS TO REDUCE
POPULATION
ACTIONS
Donate
to and or join a good population organization—Planned Parenthood, etc. Subscribe to its magazine. Urge others to join and subscribe.
Organize
a Forum at another town.
Purchase
another copy of Weisman’s book to pass around.
Publicize the new LARC
IUD
and how important and cheap are contraceptives for voluntary population
control.
QUALIFICATIONS
AND CHALLENGES TO OVERPOPULATION THEORY: CONSUMPTION EQUALLY CRUCIAL
George Monbiot,
Population Growth AND
POPULATION
GROWTH NOT THE ONLY DECISIVE FACTOR By George Monbiot.
“It’s the Rich
Wot Gets the Pleasure,” Posted: 27 Oct 2011.
PDT. Population is much less of a problem than consumption. No wonder
the rich are obsessed by it. By George Monbiot. Published on the Guardian’s website, 27th October 2011. It
must rank among the most remarkable events in recent human history. In just 60
years the global average number of children each woman bears has fallen from 6
to 2.5. This is an astonishing triumph for women’s empowerment, and whatever
your position on population growth might be, it is something we should
celebrate. But this decline in fertility, according to the report the United
Nations published yesterday, is not the end of the story. It has now raised its
estimate of global population growth. Rather than peaking at about 9 billion in
the middle of this century, the UN says that human numbers will reach some 10
billion by 2100, and continue growing beyond that point. That’s the middle
scenario. The highest of its range of estimates is an astonishing 15.8bn by
2100. If this were correct, population would be a much greater problem – for
both the environment and human development – than we had assumed. It would
oblige me to change my views on yet another subject. But fortunately for my
peace of mind and, rather more importantly, for the prospects of everyone on
earth, it is almost certainly baloney. Writing in the journal Nature in May,
Fred Pearce pointed out that the UN’s revision arose not from any scientific
research or analysis, but from what appeared to be an arbitrary decision to
change one of the inputs it fed into its model. Its previous analysis was based
on the assumption that the average number of children per woman would fall to
1.85 worldwide by 2100. But this year it changed the assumption to 2.1. This
happens to be the population replacement rate: the point at which reproduction
contributes to neither a fall nor a rise in the number of people. The UN failed
to explain this changed assumption, which appears to fly in the face of current
trends, or to show why fertility decline should suddenly stop when it hit
replacement level, rather than continuing beyond that point, as has happened to
date in all such populations. I expected yesterday’s report to contain the
explanation. I expected wrong. It appears to have plucked its fertility figure
out of the air. Even so, and even if we’re to assume that the old figures are
more realistic than the new ones, there’s a problem. As the new report points
out “the escape from poverty and hunger is made more difficult by rapid
population growth.” It also adds to the pressure on the biosphere. But how big
a problem is it? If you believe the rich, elderly white men who dominate the
population debate, it is the biggest one of all. In 2009 for example, a group
of US billionaires met to decide which threat to the planet most urgently
required their attention. Who’d have guessed? These men, who probably each
consume as many of the world’s resources in half an hour as the average African
consumes in a lifetime, decided that it was population. Population is the issue
you blame if you can’t admit to your own impacts: it’s not us consuming, it’s
those brown people reproducing. It seems to be a reliable rule of environmental
politics that the richer you are, the more likely you are to place population
growth close to the top of the list of crimes against the planet. The new
report, inflated though its figures seem to be, will gravely disappoint the
population obsessives. It cites Paul Murtaugh of Oregon
State University ,
whose research shows that: “An extra child born today in the United States , would, down the generations,
produce an eventual carbon footprint seven times that of an extra child in China ,
55 times that of an Indian child or 86 times that of a Nigerian child.”And it
draws on a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences which makes the first comprehensive assessment of how changes in
population affect carbon dioxide emissions. This concludes that: “slowing
population growth could provide 16 per cent to 19 per cent of the emissions
reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate
change”. In other words, it can make a contribution. But the other 81-84% will
have to come from reducing consumption and changing technologies. The UN report
concludes that “even if zero population growth were achieved, that would barely
touch the climate problem.”This should not prevent us from strongly supporting
the policies which will cause population to peak sooner rather than later. Sex
education, the report shows, is crucial, so is access to contraception and the
recognition of women’s rights and improvement in their social status. All these
have been important factors in the demographic transition the world has seen so
far. We should also press for a better distribution of wealth: escaping from
grinding poverty is another of the factors which has allowed women to have
fewer children. The highly unequal system sustained by the rich white men who
fulminate about population is one of the major reasons for population growth.
All this puts conservatives in a difficult position. They want to blame the
poor for the environmental crisis by attributing it to population growth. Yet
some of them oppose all the measures – better and earlier sex education,
universal access to contraception (for teenagers among others), stronger rights
for women, the redistribution of wealth – which are likely to reduce it. And
beyond these interventions, what do they intend to do about population growth?
As the UN report points out: “Considerable population growth continues today
because of the high numbers of births in the 1950s and 1960s, which have
resulted in larger base populations with millions of young people reaching
their reproductive years over succeeding generations.”In other words, it’s a
hangover from an earlier period. It has been compounded by another astonishing
transformation: since the 1950s, global life expectancy has risen from 48 to
68. What this means is that even if all the measures I’ve mentioned here –
education, contraception, rights, redistribution – were widely deployed today,
there will still be a population bulge, as a result of the momentum generated
60 years ago. So what do they propose? Compulsory sterilisation? Mass killing?
If not, they had better explain their programme. Yes, population growth
contributes to environmental problems. No, it is not the decisive factor. Even
the availability of grain is affected more by rising livestock numbers and the
use of biofuels – driven, again by consumption – than by human population
growth. Of course we should demand that governments help women regain control
over their bodies. But beyond that there’s little that can be done. We must
instead decide how best to accommodate human numbers which will, at least for
the next four decades, continue to rise. www.monbiot.com
From the White House: Write or Call
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Contents: Over-Population Newsletter #4, June 28,
2014
FORUM ON WEISMAN’S COUNTDOWN, Sunday July 6, 2014, 1:30
July 11, United Nations
World Population DAY
CONDITION OF THE WORLD
Alan Weisman, Countdown, a Review by Nathaniel Rich in
NYTBR
Datz, C02 vs. Food
RESISTING ORGANIZATIONS
United Nations Population
Fund
UN
Population Connection
Population Connection Magazine of Population Connection (formerly ZPG)
NARAL
CHALLENGE
Angus and Butler , Too Many People? A Review by Bill
Hopwood (stresses negative effects of
consumption, class prejudice against the poor, capitalism). Comment by Dick.
Contact President Obama
Contents 1-3
END OVER-POPULATION, GROWTH, CONSUMPTION, WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE
NEWSLETTER #5, JUNE 6, 2015
1 comment:
Under the mainline UN estimates, global population will grow for the rest of this century, but slowly, and this will be the last century with a growing population. The UN has an impressive track record in this area, but some European analysis groups think that the UN is estimating fertility that’s higher than realistic, and that population numbers will fall much sooner. It should be clear by 2030 who is correct.
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